On Tuesday November 17th–after a week of unrelenting protests throughout the country that led to Manuel Merino stepping down–, Francisco Sagasti, Member of Congress from Partido Morado, assumed the Presidency of the Republic. This crisis has changed the political environment, and considering the country’s institutional fragility, we can’t ensure that the next few months will be much calmer.
The international environment is becoming increasingly favorable for Peru. In addition, at the local level there are four main drivers of economic activity.
La crisis sanitaria debido al COVID-19 en el interior del país tuvo un impacto progresivo y muy duro dado que superó rápidamente la escasa infraestructura hospitalaria y una capacidad de atención médica bastante limitada. Actualmente, los indicadores muestran un declive notorio en las tasas de contagio y fallecidos, al igual que en Lima; sin embargo, las regiones enfrentan el difícil reto de recuperar su actividad económica local y de preparase para posibles rebrotes del contagio.
En octubre, el Indicca (Índice de Confianza del Consumidor de Lima Metropolitana de APOYO Consultoría e Ipsos) se ubicó en 42 puntos, ligeramente por encima de los registros históricamente bajos de hace unos meses. Con este resultado, la confianza de los hogares empieza a mostrar una mejora muy gradual, pero continúa sumamente deteriorada con respecto al período precrisis.
At the global level, economic recovery lost momentum in September and October. The exception was China, where economic recovery remained strong. In the remainder of the year, it is most likely that the global economy will continue to recover gradually.
De acuerdo con el sondeo empresarial realizado durante la semana del 12 al 16 de octubre a los clientes del SAE, siete de cada diez ejecutivos califica al riesgo regulatorio desde el Congreso con el máximo grado de preocupación para la toma de decisiones de inversión en sus organizaciones empresariales en los próximos 12 meses.
La crisis ocasionada por el COVID-19 generará un severo deterioro de las cuentas fiscales en el Perú. Si no se implementan medidas, el incremento de la deuda pública sería insostenible. Si se implementan algunas medidas tributarias, se podría estabilizar la deuda pública alrededor de 40% del PBI. Aún hay espacio para generar mejoras adicionales y estabilizar la deuda pública en el límite legal de 30% del PBI.
Economic recovery continued to lose impulse in September. However, in September there were some positive signs on the economic and public health fronts. The above is positive news, but it is still too soon to expect an acceleration of economic recovery towards the end of the year.
Latin America has been one of the regions most affected by the spread of COVID-19, both in terms of health and economy. To date, five of the ten countries with the highest number of deaths per million people are Latin American. Furthermore, the GDP of the region will contract close to 9% this year, almost twice as much as the average decline expected on a global level (5%).
In August, the business environment deteriorated on three fronts. First, the public health crisis worsened this past month, leading the government to reestablish restrictions to human mobility. Second, the confrontation between Congress and the Executive branch further escalated. Third, the pace of economic recovery weakened, following the quick recovery observed in the previous months.
