In 2026, the Peruvian economy will grow by 3.2%, a pace similar to that of 2025, despite electoral risks
In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 2.5%, a slower pace than that observed in the first months of the year.
On Tuesday November 17th–after a week of unrelenting protests throughout the country that led to Manuel Merino stepping down–, Francisco Sagasti, Member of Congress from Partido Morado, assumed the Presidency of the Republic. This crisis has changed the political environment, and considering the country’s institutional fragility, we can’t ensure that the next few months will be much calmer.
The first relevant change is that of the balance of powers, which is still consolidating. At the moment, there are signs that the political capital of the Executive is a bit stronger after the crisis.
The second change in the environment has been the activation of social protest, and the role of public opinion, which have probably had an influence in the decisions made by authorities.
Despite the improvement in the political capital of the Executive and the loss of prestige of Congress, regulatory risk will remain high. This is mainly because, since taking office, Congress has shown a high level of consensus regarding the microeconomic populist measures taken and this situation will most likely continue.
In conclusion, despite the fact that after the crisis the Executive Power has gained some strength, we’re still facing a fragile political balance, given that our institutional weaknesses persist, and the political opposition could quickly gain strength again.
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In the third quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 2.5%, a slower pace than that observed in the first months of the year.
This month, President Dina Boluarte’s cabinet demonstrated resilience in the face of criticism over leaked audio recordings implicating Ministers Eduardo Arana (PCM) and Juan José Santiváñez (Interior).
The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.
