January was marked by social upheaval and intensification of violen at a national level, especially in the south of the country. The diversity of actors has hindered the government from identifying valid spokespersons to enter into conversation and negotiate with and, to date, have not managed to cal, down the exacerbated state of affairs.

To that effect, the interim government has shown a strategy incapable of containig the protests. Furthermore, the limited political capital of the Executive has made ir susceptible to pressure froma citizen and Congress. In consequence, the continuation of the government will depend on the capacity to control conflict and call new elections.

On its part, Congress isn’t giving adequate responses in the face of social demands and convulsion. Even though the start of the next term of legislature has been brought forward to February 15 with the purpose of anticipating the second vote on bringing elections forward, so far, Congress hasn’t approved any of the reforms necessary in the framework of the electoral process.

Moving forward, uncertainty will stay high due to polarization, the poor political offering and severe fragmentaton. The difficulty of the Legislative to reach consensus regarding the political reforms will keep the risk of a political crisis smoldering in the future. In this sense, the next few weeks will be key in defining milestones and risks in the medium term.