By 2024, the political scenario begins with less turbulence and a perception of lower risks for the business environment.
A survey by the SAE de APOYO Consultoría, carried out from January 2 to 9 with 31 political analysts, reveals a significant decrease in political risk during the last year. For the consensus of analysts, the probability of the occurrence of critical events that could alter the continuity of the Government has decreased. For example, the possibility of calling general elections fell from 42% to 13% between March 2023 and January 2024, the probability of a vacancy or resignation of President Boluarte fell from 32% to 18%, and the risk of a social upheaval, similar to that of January 2023, was reduced from 47% to 15%.
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Senior analyst
The economy maintained a solid growth pace in Q1 2025, around 3.8%, slightly above expectations. Primary sectors, such as agro-exports and fishing, continued to rebound, although they were still affected by weather conditions in Q1 2024.
This month, the political agenda has once again focused on citizen insecurity. The death of a singer from a well-known musical group, allegedly at the hands of extortionists, sparked renewed criticism of the Minister of the Interior, who was censured by Congress, which in turn triggered new protests.
Despite growing criticism, President Dina Boluarte remains reluctant to remove him from office, as Santivañez plays a key role in her efforts to obstruct investigations against her and her inner circle, including her brother Nicanor Boluarte.
