By 2024, the political scenario begins with less turbulence and a perception of lower risks for the business environment.
A survey by the SAE de APOYO Consultoría, carried out from January 2 to 9 with 31 political analysts, reveals a significant decrease in political risk during the last year. For the consensus of analysts, the probability of the occurrence of critical events that could alter the continuity of the Government has decreased. For example, the possibility of calling general elections fell from 42% to 13% between March 2023 and January 2024, the probability of a vacancy or resignation of President Boluarte fell from 32% to 18%, and the risk of a social upheaval, similar to that of January 2023, was reduced from 47% to 15%.
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Senior analyst
During the 2Q2024, economic growth was driven by the rebound of primary sectors, such as traditional agriculture and fishing, and by higher public spending, supported by an estimated increase of 11% in public wages and 16% in public investment, adjusting for inflation.
During the month of August, attention was focused on the dynamics within Congress. In view of the election of the Board of Directors and the recomposition of the ordinary commissions, numerous movements were recorded in the benches.
Although the implicit alliance between the Executive and the Legislative remains in force, in recent months we have seen a progressive weakening of the Executive.
