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Political Outlook

02/02/2022

New crisis triggers the third Cabinet after a second reshuffle in six months of government

In the first month of the year, successive crises have continued to drastically deteriorate the image and credibility of the Executive. The resignation of Prime Minister Mirtha Vásquez deepened the crisis within a Government that was already facing a series of challenges. Meanwhile, tensions continue to rise between the Executive and Legislative branches, in a Congress with a high level of fragmentation and weak alliances that respond to particular interests. However, the current correlation of forces in Congress would still seem to indicate that there is no coalition capable of obtaining the necessary votes to impeach President Castillo.

Going forward, the hasty resignation of the Prime Minister, Mirtha Vásquez, and the appointment of a new Cabinet headed by Congressman Héctor Valer (Perú Democrático), will seek to reconfigure the political alliances of the Government. Finally, on the whole, no substantial improvement is seen in the selection of new ministers, and due to the way in which they were appointed, it is likely that the contradictions and tensions within this Cabinet will quickly become evident.

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OUR PERSPECTIVE

Peru's economic growth was dynamic in Q1 2025, although international environment risks have intensified.

The economy maintained a solid growth pace in Q1 2025, around 3.8%, slightly above expectations. Primary sectors, such as agro-exports and fishing, continued to rebound, although they were still affected by weather conditions in Q1 2024.

Political pressure on the government intensifies with the censure of Santivañez and new episodes of protest.

This month, the political agenda has once again focused on citizen insecurity. The death of a singer from a well-known musical group, allegedly at the hands of extortionists, sparked renewed criticism of the Minister of the Interior, who was censured by Congress, which in turn triggered new protests.

Resumption of Congressional Functions: Oversight, Electoral Reforms, and Key Projects on the Short-Term Agenda

Despite growing criticism, President Dina Boluarte remains reluctant to remove him from office, as Santivañez plays a key role in her efforts to obstruct investigations against her and her inner circle, including her brother Nicanor Boluarte.

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