The week’s balance by Hugo Santa María.
Dear friends:
This week, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Central Bank, and Cofide, have completed the regulatory framework applicable to Reactivate Peru, the guaranteed loans program. Financial institutions are already coordinating with their clients and will be ready to start injecting liquidity into the economy once the first bid for funds is carried out. In APOYO Consultoria’s opinión, the guaranteed loans program still has room for improvement and there are important segments in the financial market that are not being covered by it, but we trust that authorities will address this.
The government has also announced a subsidy program in favor of rural households, as well as willingness to consider adjustments to labor regulation seeking joint public and private sector efforts to alleviate the impact of COVID-19 on employment. At the end of this week, 5 to 10-year sovereign bonds amounting to US$3 billion were placed at historically low rates and with a level of demand 8 times higher than the placement amount. These are good news indicating that things are in motion amid the pandemic.
Along these lines, we know that many SAE members – company leaders in several economic sectors – have been working tirelessly in the design of protocols for reopening their sectors that require government approval and supervision. As for the Executive branch, some public statements made by authorities indicate that they have already begun to analyze this. For instance, on April 17 in a public event organized by Capeco, the Minister of Health Victor Zamora indicated that protocols are a necessary condition to resume activities and they must be approved by the Ministry of Health. He added that some of the factors that will be taken into account for this approval are the impact on the recovery of macroeconomic indicators and employment generation. In addition, he publically committed himself to review the protocols that the construction association has already submitted to government authorities. These signs are undoubtedly positive, but need to be reflected on concrete results. This requires speedy decision-making and intense public-private cooperation.
On this front, there is no time to request approvals or licenses in different government entities as if these were regular times. The situation requires a multi-sector government team empowered to interact with the private sector and to approve protocols and supervision mechanisms.
Throughout the past six weeks, urban households have lost 50% of their income, on average. If we do not begin to resume economic activities responsibly, no subsidy program or fiscal capacity will be enough to compensate for this impact. Considering that we are increasingly close to the beginning of a slow return to “normal conditions” in which we will have to live with COVID-19 for some time, the guidelines for getting Peru back to work again are urgent.
Best regards,
Hugo Santa María
Partner and Chief Economist
SAE – Business Advisory Service
During the 2Q2024, economic growth was driven by the rebound of primary sectors, such as traditional agriculture and fishing, and by higher public spending, supported by an estimated increase of 11% in public wages and 16% in public investment, adjusting for inflation.
During the month of August, attention was focused on the dynamics within Congress. In view of the election of the Board of Directors and the recomposition of the ordinary commissions, numerous movements were recorded in the benches.
Although the implicit alliance between the Executive and the Legislative remains in force, in recent months we have seen a progressive weakening of the Executive.
