During 2023, economic growth will be sustained by mining production (due to the first complete year of commercial operations of Quellaveco) and the pending recovery of services most affected by the pandemic. Nevertheless, growth will be low (only 2,2%), especially growth of local sales (0,7%) and will be limited due to the following factors:
– A less favorable international environment, due to more restrictive international financial conditions and the lower global growth, and
– On a local level, elevated political uncertainty (mainly generated by early elections and the difficulty of Dina Boluarte’s government to contain the protests), which will limit investment flows.
In a scenario where social conflict exacerbates and the wave of violence continues to sweep through the national territory and the government fails to contain them, GDP growth could be lower by at least 0,5 pp than in our baseline scenario.
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Head of Macroeconomic Analysis
The economy maintained a solid growth pace in Q1 2025, around 3.8%, slightly above expectations. Primary sectors, such as agro-exports and fishing, continued to rebound, although they were still affected by weather conditions in Q1 2024.
This month, the political agenda has once again focused on citizen insecurity. The death of a singer from a well-known musical group, allegedly at the hands of extortionists, sparked renewed criticism of the Minister of the Interior, who was censured by Congress, which in turn triggered new protests.
Despite growing criticism, President Dina Boluarte remains reluctant to remove him from office, as Santivañez plays a key role in her efforts to obstruct investigations against her and her inner circle, including her brother Nicanor Boluarte.
