In the third quarter of 2024, the economy showed a more pronounced recovery. During the quarter, a series of indicators linked to local demand recorded a better performance than in the first half. In fact, the BBVA consumption index -related to household spending-, the BCR indices of purchase orders and perceived demand by companies, and electricity consumption showed more favorable results in July-August.
Thus, non-primary GDP -linked to the evolution of local demand- grew around 4.5% in July-August, compared to the same period in 2024, a higher growth than in the 2Q2024 (2.4%). On the one hand, this greater dynamism would be due to the boost given to private consumption by the withdrawal of funds from the AFPs and the slight rebound in the growth of private formal employment. On the other hand, the improvement in business confidence in previous quarters and the gradual decrease in short-term interest rates for loans to large companies have allowed their investment flows to continue to recover.
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Head of Research
The economy maintained a solid growth pace in Q1 2025, around 3.8%, slightly above expectations. Primary sectors, such as agro-exports and fishing, continued to rebound, although they were still affected by weather conditions in Q1 2024.
This month, the political agenda has once again focused on citizen insecurity. The death of a singer from a well-known musical group, allegedly at the hands of extortionists, sparked renewed criticism of the Minister of the Interior, who was censured by Congress, which in turn triggered new protests.
Despite growing criticism, President Dina Boluarte remains reluctant to remove him from office, as Santivañez plays a key role in her efforts to obstruct investigations against her and her inner circle, including her brother Nicanor Boluarte.
