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Economic Outlook

29/08/2024

3Q2024 starts with clearer signs of recovery in private domestic demand


During the 2Q2024, economic growth was driven by the rebound of primary sectors, such as traditional agriculture and fishing, and by higher public spending, supported by an estimated increase of 11% in public wages and 16% in public investment, adjusting for inflation.

Thus, GDP grew 3.6% thanks to these factors, but other components showed a more moderate performance, such as private consumption, which increased only 2.3%; private investment, which decreased 0.2%; and private formal employment, which grew 1.8%. In contrast, the economy between July and this month would be registering more generalized growth. In fact, we estimate that GDP grew 3.5% in July, similar to what was observed in the 2Q2024, but driven by different drivers, such as the construction and manufacturing sectors, which reflect the dynamics of private investment, and by an acceleration of household spending.

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Pablo del Águila

Head of Research

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Congress 2024-2025: New leadership and recomposition of commissions will modify some legislative dynamics

During the month of August, attention was focused on the dynamics within Congress. In view of the election of the Board of Directors and the recomposition of the ordinary commissions, numerous movements were recorded in the benches.

President Boluarte highlights infrastructure and mining in July 28 speech, but implementation of some initiatives raises concerns

Although the implicit alliance between the Executive and the Legislative remains in force, in recent months we have seen a progressive weakening of the Executive.

The improvement in private consumption in 2H2024 could be differentiated by socioeconomic segments

During the second quarter, GDP would have grown at a higher rate than during the first quarter, mainly due to the recovery of the primary sectors.

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