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Economic Outlook

29/08/2024

3Q2024 starts with clearer signs of recovery in private domestic demand


During the 2Q2024, economic growth was driven by the rebound of primary sectors, such as traditional agriculture and fishing, and by higher public spending, supported by an estimated increase of 11% in public wages and 16% in public investment, adjusting for inflation.

Thus, GDP grew 3.6% thanks to these factors, but other components showed a more moderate performance, such as private consumption, which increased only 2.3%; private investment, which decreased 0.2%; and private formal employment, which grew 1.8%. In contrast, the economy between July and this month would be registering more generalized growth. In fact, we estimate that GDP grew 3.5% in July, similar to what was observed in the 2Q2024, but driven by different drivers, such as the construction and manufacturing sectors, which reflect the dynamics of private investment, and by an acceleration of household spending.

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Pablo del Águila

Head of Research

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Changes in the Cabinet have strengthened the alliance with Congress amid a context of growing institutional weakness.

The Government’s main allies, Fuerza Popular and APP, leveraged the crisis triggered by the murder of 13 mine workers in Pataz to strengthen their influence over ministerial appointments.

Economic growth likely remained steady at the beginning of Q2 and is becoming increasingly broad-based, despite the uncertain external environment.

So far this year, the economic recovery appears to have consolidated, with growth becoming more broad-based. Domestic demand has shown solid performance.

The serious deterioration in the conduct of economic policy in the United States would impact Peru's economic growth mainly in 2026.

In the first quarter of the year, economic growth remained solid (3.6%). This was the result of a combination of favorable dynamics for GDP.

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