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Economic Outlook

01/07/2024

Gradual economic recovery at the beginning of Q2, although a “ceiling” on growth after the 2024 “rebound” becomes increasingly likely

During the month, three “climatic conditions” characterized the economic environment.

During April, upward pressure and volatility in the prices of some commodities was high. There was a series of attacks between Israel and Iran, intensifying global fears that the war in the Middle East would escalate. These generated significant upward pressure on oil prices (about a third of production is in the Middle East) and gold (due to demand for safe assets). This pressure eased towards the end of the month, as escalation concerns moderated.

Pablo del Águila

Head of Research

OUR PERSPECTIVE

Peru's economic growth was dynamic in Q1 2025, although international environment risks have intensified.

The economy maintained a solid growth pace in Q1 2025, around 3.8%, slightly above expectations. Primary sectors, such as agro-exports and fishing, continued to rebound, although they were still affected by weather conditions in Q1 2024.

Political pressure on the government intensifies with the censure of Santivañez and new episodes of protest.

This month, the political agenda has once again focused on citizen insecurity. The death of a singer from a well-known musical group, allegedly at the hands of extortionists, sparked renewed criticism of the Minister of the Interior, who was censured by Congress, which in turn triggered new protests.

Resumption of Congressional Functions: Oversight, Electoral Reforms, and Key Projects on the Short-Term Agenda

Despite growing criticism, President Dina Boluarte remains reluctant to remove him from office, as Santivañez plays a key role in her efforts to obstruct investigations against her and her inner circle, including her brother Nicanor Boluarte.

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