CADE 2024. Iván Portocarrero, Director of Sector Analysis at Apoyo Consultoría, stressed that Arequipa could be the region that starts a new cycle of large investments in Peru.
Arequipa, the headquarters of CADE Ejecutivos this year, is declining in productivity, according to the most recent reports from INEI. However, this perspective could change soon, according to Iván Portocarrero, director of Sector Analysis at Apoyo Consultoría, who shared with Gestión a study with quite revealing data on how the economy of this region will move during 2025.
The consulting firm believes that Arequipa could be the starting point to begin a new cycle of investments in the country, especially due to its mining potential. Based on this analysis, they identify a series of projects that could begin construction on the southern coast due to having adequate conditions and proximity to demand.
Apoyo Consultoría expects the Peruvian economy to grow 2.6% in 2025. Despite this, the performance of the southern zone would be above the national average. These are the reasons behind it.
MOTOR
Portocarrero recalled that, between 2013 and 2023, the southern part of the country grew 2.8% on average, that is, above the GDP growth of Peru (2.2%). In this result, the weight of Arequipa was fundamental. In that period, the region grew 3.2% on average.
Despite this, the region has had a hard time moving forward in recent semesters. Moreover, according to INEI data, its production has slowed down. However, the Apoyo Consultoría spokesperson did not hesitate to point out that the situation could be positive again very soon in Arequipa.
“You have a fairly important mining and tourism cluster in the southern area in general. You have the potential of Cusco and Machu Picchu that can grow much more there with some projects. Arequipa can benefit greatly from this,” he indicated.
APOYO estimates that the southern zone will be the engine of the country’s economic growth in 2024. And in 2025 it would remain among the main regions with a rate close to 2.8%. Although the northern zone would grow a little more, Portocarrero highlighted that there is a very high potential for the southern zone, with Arequipa at the head, to grow at rates above 5% in subsequent years.
“We are about to enter a new cycle of mining investment, which begins in the southern zone. It is happening. You have Tía María and the expansion of Cuajone, which also Las Bambas has just approved a US$ 6,000 million project. There is a lot of investment to take advantage of in the southern zone. Tourism is also growing, it comes with a fairly strong push. Arequipa is the second region where more tourists come, after Cusco,” he said.
The consultant also said that what is really needed to capture this tourist potential is greater investment in infrastructure that makes visits to the Colca Valley in Arequipa, for example, viable.
Other projects that Portocarrero highlighted are linked to the so-called southern gas pipeline. Apart from SITGAS, TGP recently announced an extension of its project that would take between 2 and 3 years to complete in the southern part of the country. The investment, entirely private, would amount to US$ 2,000 million.
REST OF REGIONS
Portocarrero also pointed out that the southern zone, at the end of the first half of 2024, achieved a growth of 4%, above the national average, which was 2.8%. “In terms of rebound, the strongest will be in the southern zone and the northern macro-region, due to the effect of the El Niño Phenomenon. They have a low comparative base, with a more affected market,” he said.
In the case of Lima and the east, they are advancing at the same level as the average for the entire country. Regarding the central regions, the Apoyo Consultoría spokesperson said, they are growing at a rate close to 3%.
For 2025, Portocarrero commented that growth between regions would be a little more homogeneous. This, without considering “the upward bias” that the southern zone could experience for the reasons already mentioned.
“If it has that potential, it is because of the strong boost that could come from mining investment. The center and the north have a significant investment in infrastructure that will compensate. But all would grow around the national average,” he said.
However, with an estimated rate of 2.6% for 2025, Portocarrero pointed out that this level of growth would be insufficient to reduce the gaps in access to basic services and poverty in this part of Peru.
“Just as at the national level, we always say we have to be between 4 and 5% so that the formal labor market, for example, can incorporate people who are beginning to enter the market, the same must be thought about in the southern zone,” he said.
