Interview in Desde Adentro, Magazine of the National Society of Mining, Petroleum and Energy
According to APOYO Consultoría estimates, mining production grew by around 2% compared to 2023, given that there were no new mines that started operations or expanded their plant capacity in 2024. The main boost came from molybdenum production, largely due to the first full year of commercial operation of the Quellaveco plant. Added to this were some favorable results in precious metals, explained by the very good prices recorded this year, and the maturation of some relatively small investments, such as Yumpag in Uchucchacua, Lagunas Norte with the purchase of Boroo and Yanacocha, among others.
In the case of hydrocarbons, production would also have grown by around 2% led by the oil subsector, which recovered mainly due to the good performance of Lot 95, in Loreto. The production of natural gas liquids also regained momentum, after four consecutive years of decline. Finally, natural gas production had a slight adjustment, due to a lower demand from the electricity sector compared to 2023, a year in which the El Niño phenomenon caused severe droughts in the south, limiting hydroelectric production.
Regarding electricity demand, it remained aligned with GDP growth, with an increase of around 3% compared to 2023. There was a greater demand from free clients linked to manufacturing and construction, sectors that had been hit hard in previous years.
The production results of these sectors in 2024 reflect the prioritization of investment flows in the sustainability and optimization of the production levels of their current operations. In other words, 2024 was not a record year for large investments in the mining and energy sector, but it is worth noting that we will remember it as a key year to direct some important projects that will allow a new boost to the sector in the medium term.
In this sense, projects such as Tía María or Zafranal gained significant traction during 2024 and both are emerging as part of the start of a new mining investment cycle. In hydrocarbons, the awards of lots X to OIG and 192 to Altamesa have improved the prospects for investment and oil production in the short and medium term.
Regarding the development of natural gas, some interesting initiatives have been proposed such as TGP Extensión Sur or the Cálidda project in the southeastern regions of the country. However, both projects still require serious evaluation by the State, which may take longer than desired by the private sector.
In electricity, renewable energy generation projects continue to be very dynamic, as do electricity transmission projects, whose awards, in most cases, have been made on schedule.
Unfortunately, they have had a very negative impact on the sector. This has become evident through the numerous attacks suffered by Minera Poderosa’s operations in the northern highlands of the country. This mining company was the main gold producer in 2022 and was unable to maintain that leadership position due to this situation. Other nearby mines such as Shahuindo or Retamas have also suffered attacks that have limited their production capacity in 2024. Although the national gold and silver production figures show positive results, the increase in illegal economies prevented these results from being better.
The lack of combat and control of illegal economies and informal economies influences the investment decisions of formal mining companies in the medium and long term.
2025 is seen as a year in which some investments will begin to mature in terms of approved studies and permits or with more advanced financing. Specifically, in the case of the mining sector, we expect investments of US$ 5.5 billion to be made in 2025, 13.5% more than in 2024, supported by maintenance, optimization and life extension projects; as well as by the construction of new mines and expansions of mines in operation.
Although mining exploration is improving, it is still far from the flows required for Peru to stand out in the long term. In this sense, the general elections could condition the pace of acceleration of the new mining cycle (which will undoubtedly impact investments in the energy sector) as we approach the end of 2025 and high uncertainty persists or radical candidates with anti-market positions or without respect for democratic institutions emerge as favorites. In the case of the hydrocarbon sector, the critical situation of Petroperú and the lack of clarity of a sensible strategy on what should be done with this company conditions better prospects in 2025.
Social conflict linked to formal mining operations or projects has remained quite limited during the past year and we hope that in 2025 it can be kept under control. This has largely been due to the intensive work of companies in their relations with communities, although it also helped that since Pedro Castillo left the Presidency of the Republic, the State itself stopped boycotting initiatives that had been favorable to the development of the sector.
