Nearly six months into the change of government, the probability of president Boluarte completing her presidential term increases despite underlying risks. While initially the scenario of early elections in 2023 seemed more likely (calling for early elections in December 2022, was approved in the first round) Congress, has lost it’s incentive to continue with the process. In fact, as of January 2023, Congress has rejected the initial proposal and failed to reach a consensus on more than the seven presented proposals. The sustained decline in social conflict has contributed to the issue losing priority in the legislative debate.
For now, the possibility of an advancement materializing by the end of this year or early 2024 is becoming increasingly remote.
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Senior analyst
During the 2Q2024, economic growth was driven by the rebound of primary sectors, such as traditional agriculture and fishing, and by higher public spending, supported by an estimated increase of 11% in public wages and 16% in public investment, adjusting for inflation.
During the month of August, attention was focused on the dynamics within Congress. In view of the election of the Board of Directors and the recomposition of the ordinary commissions, numerous movements were recorded in the benches.
Although the implicit alliance between the Executive and the Legislative remains in force, in recent months we have seen a progressive weakening of the Executive.
