During 2023, economic growth will be sustained by mining production (due to the first complete year of commercial operations of Quellaveco) and the pending recovery of services most affected by the pandemic. Nevertheless, growth will be low (only 2,2%), especially growth of local sales (0,7%) and will be limited due to the following factors:
– A less favorable international environment, due to more restrictive international financial conditions and the lower global growth, and
– On a local level, elevated political uncertainty (mainly generated by early elections and the difficulty of Dina Boluarte’s government to contain the protests), which will limit investment flows.
In a scenario where social conflict exacerbates and the wave of violence continues to sweep through the national territory and the government fails to contain them, GDP growth could be lower by at least 0,5 pp than in our baseline scenario.
To access the complete report contact us at: contactaSAE@apoyoconsultoria.com
Head of Macroeconomic Analysis
During the 2Q2024, economic growth was driven by the rebound of primary sectors, such as traditional agriculture and fishing, and by higher public spending, supported by an estimated increase of 11% in public wages and 16% in public investment, adjusting for inflation.
During the month of August, attention was focused on the dynamics within Congress. In view of the election of the Board of Directors and the recomposition of the ordinary commissions, numerous movements were recorded in the benches.
Although the implicit alliance between the Executive and the Legislative remains in force, in recent months we have seen a progressive weakening of the Executive.
